2014 Emmy's

The Emmy's are Monday, and here's my incredibly uneducated guess at what will happen.

Supporting Actress: Miniseries/Movie

Angela Bassett - American Horror Story: Coven

Kathy Bates - American Horror Story: Coven

Ellen Burstyn - Flowers in the Attic
Frances Conroy - American Horror Story: Coven

Julia Roberts - The Normal Heart

Allison Tolmen - Fargo

Winner - Angela Bassett

So this is one of those completely uneducated guesses. American Horror Story keeps soldiering on, and it'll probably get recognized. Kathy Bates was another notable guest on this year's cycle. Julia Roberts would be a safe bet, but The Normal Heart will be taking home plenty of other awards Monday night.

Supporting Actor: Miniseries/Movie

Matt Bomer - The Normal Heart

Martin Freeman - Sherlock: "His Last Vow"

Colin Hanks - Fargo

Joe Mantello - The Normal Heart

Alfred Molina - The Normal Heart

Jim Parsons - The Normal Heart 

Winner - Matt Bomer

So its a safe bet that someone from The Normal Heart is going to win here. Basically like a draw out of the hat. So, for whatever reason, I'll go with Matt Bomer. So, yeah.

Supporting Actress: Drama

Christine Baranski - The Good Wife

Joanne Froggatt - Downton Abbey

Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad

Lena Headey - Game of Thrones

Christina Hendricks - Mad Men

Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey

Winner - Anna Gunn

Breaking Bad wrapped up its last season nearly a year ago, so in its swan song at the Emmy's, it seems poised to take some awards, with this being one of them. 

Supporting Actor: Drama

Jim Carter - Downton Abbey

Josh Charles - The Good Wife

Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones

Mandy Patinkin - Homeland 

Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad

Jon Voight - Ray Donovan

Winner - Josh Charles

A loaded category, but The Good Wife's Josh Charles deserves this. It was one of the most shocking TV moments of the past year when his character Will Gardner was killed off. On an overall great year for The Good Wife, I see Charles getting the win here.

Supporting Actress: Comedy

Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory

Julie Bowen - Modern Family

Anna Chlumsky - Veep

Allison Janney - Mom

Kate Mckinnon - Saturday Night Live

Katie Mulgrew - Orange is the New Black

Winner - Katie Mulgrew

Finally, we arrive to a category of shows I've seen. Katie Mulgrew's "Red" is brilliant in Orange is the New Black. She provides good comic relief in literally every scene she's in, whether its the rather grotesque "sandwich" in the pilot, or the chase for the chicken. She deserves this win.

Supporting Actor: Comedy

Fred Armisen - Portlandia

Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Ty Burrell - Modern Family

Adam Driver - Girls

Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family

Tony Hale - Veep

Winner - Tony Hale

Veep has continued to grow in popularity, That, along with my general dislike of Modern Family, has me pointing towards Tony Hale for the win.

Lead Actress: Miniseries/Movie

Helena Bonham Carter - Burton & Taylor

Minnie Driver - Return to Zero

Jessica Lange - American Horror Story: Coven

Sarah Paulson - American Horror Story: Coven

Cicley Tyson - The Trip to Bountiful

Kristen Wiig - The Spirits of Babylon

Winner - Sarah Paulson

Another uneducated guess. Lets go with one of the two AHS:Coven stars (blind-folds self, picks a name out of a hat), Sarah Paulson it is. 

Lead Actor: Miniseries/Movie

Benedict Cumberbatch - Sherlock: "His Last Vow"

Chiwetel Ejiofor - Dancing on the Edge

Idris Elba - Luther

Martin Freeman - Fargo

Mark Ruffalo - The Normal Heart

Billy Bob Thornton - Fargo

Winner - Mark Ruffalo

The Normal Heart was loaded with top talent, The Avenger's star Ruffalo included. I think he gets the win here.

Lead Actress: Drama

Lizzy Caplan - Masters of Sex

Claire Danes - Homeland

Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey

Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife

Kerry Washington - -Scandal

Robin Wright - House of Cards

Winner - Robin Wright

A loaded category, making it really tough to predict. I'm going with one of the buzzworthy (ugh, I typed buzzworthy) shows and Robin Wright for House of Cards. I apologize for typing buzzworthy.

Lead Actor: Drama

Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad

Jeff Daniels - Newsroom

Jon Hamm - Mad Men

Woody Harrelson - True Detective

Matthew McConaughey - True Detective

Kevin Spacey - House of Cards

Winner - Bryan Cranston

Possibly even more loaded than the Actress category. Without Breaking Bad, this would be a toss-up between the True Detective co-stars, but being its swan song, Bryan Cranston probably gets the nod here.

Lead Actress: Comedy

Lena Dunham - Girls

Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie

Julia Louis - Dreyfus - Veep

Melissa McCarthy - Mike & Molly

Amy Poehler - Parks & Recreation

Taylor Schilling - Orange is the New Black

Winner - Taylor Schilling

I was going back and forth here between Taylor and Julia, and went with the Orange is the New Black star. With how its kept growing in popularity, I think she gets noticed here.

Lead Actor: Comedy

Louis CK - Louie

Don Cheadle - House of Lies

Ricky Gervais - Derek

Matt LeBlanc - Episodes

William H. Macy - Shameless

Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory

Winner - Louis CK

Louie made its return after being on hiatus for nearly 1.5yrs, so I think Louis CK takes the Emmy, though I could see Jim Parsons taking it as well.

Reality Competition  Program

The Amazing Race

Dancing With the Stars

Project Runway

So You Think You Can Dance

Top Chef

The Voice

Winner - The Voice

While So You Think You Can Dance is an incredibly well-run show, I'm going with the safe choice here and going with The Voice. The past 2 seasons both featured top talent, with the Fall 2013 season seeing some of the best talent its ever seen.

Variety Series:

The Colbert Report

The Daily Show w/ Jon Stewart

Jimmy Kimmel Live

Real Time w/ Bill Maher

Saturday Night Live

The Tonight Show w/ Jimmy Fallon

Winner - The Colbert Report

While Stephen Colbert is moving to CBS next year to take over for David Letterman, the Colbert Report hasn't missed a beat. It should get the win here.

TV Movie:

Killing Kennedy

Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight

The Normal Heart

Sherlock: "His Last Vow"

The Trip to Bountiful

Winner - The Normal Heart

This seems like a slam dunk. The Normal Heart was incredibly well received, and was among the leaders in Emmy nominations. 

Miniseries

American Horror Story: Coven

Bonnie & Clyde

Fargo

Luther

Treme

The White Queen

Winner - American Horror Story: Coven

Another uneducated guess, but I'm going with AHS: Coven here. It seemed to get the American Horror Story cycle back on track, and was among the leaders of miniseries in nominations

Comedy

The Big Bang Theory

Modern Family

Silicon Valley

Louie

Orange is the New Black

Veep

Winner - Orange is the New Black

Orange is the New Black has been a breakout hit, along with its Netflix Drama counterpart House of Cards. The awards run for Modern Family seems to be over, so I think OITNB gets the Emmy.

Drama

Breaking Bad

Game of Thrones

Mad Men

Downton Abbey

House of Cards

True Detective

Winner - True Detective

The toughest decision of the Emmys here, Breaking Bad or True Detective? I think Breaking Bad's last season will get compensated with a win by Bryan Cranston, but ultimately, True Detective will get the big Emmy win here. Its writing was just brilliant.

Distrust in Ferguson

On August 9th, 18- year old Michael Brown was shot at least 6 times (as reported by an independent autopsy) for jaywalking while with his friend, Dorian Johnson. He had allegedly shoplifted some cigarillos, but the story has gone back and forth from the Ferguson PD on whether officer Darren Wilson knew of this or not. Over a week has passed, and the residents of Ferguson,MO are calling for justice. But since the shooting, there's been a building distrust growing.

Ferguson PD. Protesters during the opening days were met with force by the Ferguson and St. Louis county PD. Met with tear gas, rifles aimed, and rolling tanks. These military tactics have raised a lot of questions. Is this how police forces across the country are using federal dollars? A number of politicians have begun to speak out on the militarization of police, from Sen. Rand Paul, to Rep. Hank Johnson who is drafting legislation to limit the Pentagon program that allows for the militarization.  It seems their is a bi-partisan interest here, but it remains to be seen. Watch this space.

Along with the Ferguson PD, Chief Thomas Jackson. Jackson showed during the opening days of protests that he didn't have the Ferguson PD under control. There was no sense of leadership. Then there's when Jackson released the officer's name. He decided to also release an incident report of an alleged robbery of cigarillos. This came against the wishes of the DOJ (Department of Justice) and Gov. Jay Nixon. He also didn't communicate with the new head of security, Capt. Ron Johnson. After a peaceful night, the release of the video connected to the incident report led to an increase of unrest and tension. While Jackson decided to release the report of this "strong arm robbery", they still haven't disclosed the incident report of the actual shooting (which may not exist, as reported by Lawrence O'Donnell). On top of that, Chief Jackson has flip-flopped on whether Officer Wilson knew of the shoplifting incident. First, he said the contact was about jaywalking, then he said Wilson might have seen the cigarillos in Brown's hand. Residents see this selective release of this robbery report as a means of assassinating Brown's character, just as we saw during the Trayvon Martin case. These deflections and refusal of information of any statements to the shooting can be seen as a cover-up. Meanwhile, in the days following the shooting, Officer Wilson'a whereabouts were unknown. Why wasn't Wilson immediately questioned?

St. Louis County Prosecutor Bob McCulloch. There have been questions surrounding McCulloch. First, its been reported that his father was killed in the line of duty as a cop. If that was the case for a prospective juror, they wouldn't be assigned to the jury. More troubling though, are his comments regarding Gov. Nixon bringing in the Missouri Highway Patrol and Capt. Johnson to take charge of security in Ferguson. McCulloch seemed to be the only one (beside the police union) to criticize the move, supporting the previous actions of the Ferguson and St. Louis county PD. With his support of their action in responding to protesters during the opening days, the distrust is obvious on whether he can be fair regarding this case.

Gov. Jay Nixon. For one, Gov. Nixon was slow to respond. He didn't make an appearance until that first Thursday when he introduced the Missouri Highway Patrol and Capt. Johnson. Ever since though, he's given sloppy press conferences, dodging questions. Its also become apparent that Nixon isn't connected to the community. There are times when he has come off as patronizing to Ferguson residents.

While there's good reason for distrust with local authorities in this case, there are some signs of hope. The DOJ have been conducting their own investigation, and are considering investigating the Ferguson PD as well, following this revelation , where cops detained and assaulted the wrong man, and then charged him with "destruction of property" for bleeding on officers' uniforms. More importantly, Attorney General Eric Holder made an appearance in Ferguson, where he talked to residents, community leaders and state politicians. Along with Holder, FBI agents and civil rights officials are canvassing the area for more witness reports.

Community leaders have reacted to the distrust in the local authorities by conducting voter registration drives. Low-voter turnout is in part the reason for a lack of representation with Ferguson officials. Sadly, low turnout is typical for municipal elections, but the Mike Brown case shows why they are just as, if not more important than national elections.

I for one, am cautiously optimistic that we will see justice here, that we will see the case and evidence laid out in a court of law instead of a court of public opinion. However, it is clear that there's a movement and conversation brewing here. Communities need to feel connected to and represented by their leaders. More importantly, the younger generation especially need to feel connected. There have been young protesters saying "I didn't think I'd live to 21", basically saying they are willing to risk it all for this cause. This generation doesn't feel like they can trust police, or politicians. They feel alone, with no one to turn to, no one to trust.  

Red Sox Trade Recap

                                       

The Red Sox made a number of moves at this year's trade deadline, looking to reshape the club and gearing towards contending in 2015. Lets take a look now at each trade.

Cubs receive: Felix Doubront (SP)
Red Sox receive: PTBNL (player to be named later)
                                                                 

Felix Doubront (2013): 11-6 (29 games, 27 starts), 4.32era, 162.1IP, 3.9BB/9, 7.7K/9
(2014): 2-4 (17 games, 10 starts), 6.07era, 59.1IP, 3.9BB/9, 6.5 K/9

Doubront has been a frustrating case. He's shown potential, but his stuff has been too inconsistent. He's seen a drop in his fastball velocity, and he hasn't adjusted yet. He had a really good stretch last year while Buchholz was out, but its been a down year. The Cubs have been able to turn around pitchers like Scott Feldman and Jake Arrieta, so it'll be interesting to see what the Cubs can do with Doubront.


Giants receive: Jake Peavy (SP)
Red Sox receive: Edwin Escobar (P)
                          Heath Hembree (RP)

                                                                 

                                                                       

                                                                 

Jake Peavy: (2013 w/ CWS & BOS) 12-5 (23 starts), 4.17era, 144.2IP, 2.2BB/9, 7.5 K/9
(2014 w/ BOS & SF) 1-12 (23 starts), 4.73era, 142.2IP, 3.2BB/9, 7.1K/9

Peavy was an important addition last year to add depth to Boston's rotation down the stretch in their postseason run. He's been rather ineffective this year (granted with some bad luck). Boston was looking to find rotation spots for Rubby De La Rosa and Brandon Workman, so this trade made sense. It was rather surprising at the quality of prospects they got back.

Edwin Escobar: (2014 w/ Fresno & Pawtucket - AAA): 3-8 (22 starts), 4.76era, 123IP, 2.9BB/9, 7.8K/9
Heath Hembree: (2014 w/ Fresno & Pawtucket - AAA, currently with BOS) 1-3, 19saves (43 games), 3.73era, 41IP, 3.3BB/9, 11.0K/9

Escobar was ranked #56 (Baseball America) and #95 (MLB.com) in pre-2014 prospect rankings. He's struggled this year, but in 2 starts with Pawtucket, he's given up just 2 runs in 12IP with 10K's. If Escobar can turn it around, he can add to Boston's enviable depth in pitching prospects.
Hembree has been closing games in Fresno, and has the stuff to do it when looking at his strikeout numbers. So far in Pawtucket, he has 4K's in 1.2IP, and has recently been called up to Boston, but has yet to make an appearance.


A's receive: Jon Lester (SP)
                   Jonny Gomes (OF)
Red Sox receive: Yoenis Cespedes (OF)
                           Compensatory Draft Pick (#70)

                                                             

                                                           

Jon Lester: (2013) 15-8, 33starts, 3.75era, 213.1IP, 2.8BB/9, 7.5K/9
(2014 w/ BOS & OAK) 12-7, 23starts, 2.44era, 158.2IP, 2.0BB/9, 9.1K/9

Jonny Gomes: (2013) .247/.344/.426, .771OPS, 116games, 13HR, 52RBI, 49runs
(2014 w/ BOS & OAK) .237/.331/.352, .682OPS, 83games, 6HR, 34RBI, 23runs

A massive trade that occurred during the morning of deadline day, the A's added yet another ace to their rotation. Lester is having a career year, and has been on a good run over the past 2 seasons. His postseason numbers are great, and his world series performance thus far has been legendary.
Gomes provides a nice platoon/bench option for Oakland, however Oakland will need multiple players to perform well, get healthy in order to replicate the power they lost with Cespedes.

Yoenis Cespedes: (2013) .240/.294/.442, .737OPS, 135games, 26HR, 80RBI, 74runs
(2014 w/ OAK & BOS) .258/.305/.462, .767OPS, 107games, 17HR, 69RBI, 66runs

Cespedes provides Boston with that power hitting OF they've been looking for. He's dealt with some nagging injuries over his first years in the MLB, but he certainly has the potential to be an impact bat. Of course, Cespedes is also a 2-time HR Derby champion (2013, '14). He has a cannon of an arm in the OF, but sometimes gets too aggressive in fielding balls. Getting away from the pitcher friendly parks in the AL West should help to bump up his numbers a bit, along with being mentored by David Ortiz.


Cardinals receive: John Lackey (SP)
                            Corey Littrell (P)
Red Sox receive: Joe Kelly (SP)
                          Allen Craig (OF/1B)

                                                    

                                                  

                                                 
                                                    

John Lackey: (2013) 10-13, 29starts, 3.52era, 189.1IP, 1.9BB/9, 7.7K/9
(2014 w/ BOS & STL) 11-7, 22starts, 3.55era, 144.1IP, 2.0BB/9, 7.5K/9

Corey Littrell: (2014 w/ Salem & Palm Beach - A+) 5-6, 20games (19starts), 3.62era, 107IP, 3.3BB/9, 8.2K/9

Lackey had a resurgent year last season and has seen it continue this year. With the Cardinals without Wacha and Garcia, Lackey should provide some value to St. Louis. Lackey will also be controlled next year by the Cardinals at the league minimum due to his TJ surgery in 2012.
Littrell is a nice, but not top prospect. He's spent this year at the High-A level (Salem and Palm Beach).

Joe Kelly: (2013) 10-5, 37games (15starts), 2.69era, 124IP, 3.2BB/9, 5.7K/9
(2014 w/ STL & BOS) 2-2, 8starts, 3.86era, 42IP, 3.0BB/9, 5.8K/9

Allen Craig: (2013) .315/.373/.457, .830OPS, 134games, 13HR, 97RBI, 71runs
(2014 w/ STL & BOS) .237/.291/.348 .639OPS, 98games, 7HR, 44RBI, 34runs

The Red Sox got back 2 controllable players beyond 2018. Kelly is a solid rotation addition, and has the stuff to possibly be a #3 SP for Boston next year. He had an injury at the beginning of the year, but he had a good debut with Boston against his former team.
Allen Craig was a key reason why the Cardinals made it to the World Series last year, but he's dealt with injuries this season. If he can find his 2013 form either by September or next season, he'll be a big offensive contributor.


Orioles receive: Andrew Miller (RP)
Red Sox receive: Eduardo Rodriguez (P)
                                                                   
                                                                   

Andrew Miller: (2013) 1-2, 37games, 2.64era, 30.2IP, 5.0BB/9, 14.1K/9
(2014 w/ BOS & BAL) 3-5, 54games, 2.15era, 46IP, 3.1BB/9, 14.7K/9

Miller has turned the corner with his control, becoming a strikeout machine. He isn't just a mere left-handed specialist either. Miller is a true set-up guy who should be incredibly valuable down the stretch in the Orioles BP.

Eduardo Rodriguez: (2014 w/ Bowie & Portland - AA) 4-7, 18starts, 4.31era, 94IP, 3.2BB/9, 8.1K/9

Rodriguez was a consensus top 70 prospect in the pre-2014 rankings (#65 Baseball America, #68 MLB.com, #61 Baseball Prospectus). He's had his ups and downs, but has been dominant so far with Portland (AA), with 1ER on 5 hits in 11.1IP, with 16K's and 4BB's. Rodriguez has a mid 90s fastball, and with his stuff, is another valuable pitching prospect in Boston.

Yankees receive: Stephen Drew (SS/2B)
Red Sox receive: Kelly Johnson (Util)

                                                              
                                                            

Stephen Drew: (2013) .253/.333/.443, .777OPS, 124games, 13HR, 67RBI, 57runs
(2014 w/ BOS & NYY) .176/.251/.321, .572OPS, 47games, 4HR, 18RBI, 12 runs

Drew's defense was vital last year, and has been solid this year. He signed in May with Boston, due to his declined qualifying offer. He hasn't been able to provide his usual solid bat, but since joining the NYY he's shown glimpses. He'll start at 2B for the Yankees.

Kelly Johnson: (2013 w/ Rays) .235/.305/.410, .715OPS, 118games, 16HR, 52RBI, 41runs
(2014 w/ NYY) .219/.304/.373, .677OPS, 77games, 6HR, 22RBI, 21runs

Johnson has been a solid utility player, playing 2B/3B and the OF, and has provided some pop throughout his career. The Drew trade was more of a salary dump/open roster space than anything.