The big game is approaching, meaning its time for my annual Super Bowl preview. I'll go position by position, breaking the match-ups down and seeing who has the edge. Will the Seahawks be repeat champions? Or will Tom Brady and the Patriots return to glory?
QB
Tom Brady (Patriots): 33TDs/9 INTs, 4,109yds, 97.4 rating, 36 carries/57yds
Russell Wilson (Seahawks): 20TDs/7 INTs, 3,475yds, 95 rating, 118 carries/849yds/6TDs
This is actually a tougher matchup to gauge than one might think. If you look at Wilson's overall stats from his first 3 seasons, they look really similar to Brady's. Now obviously Brady is the more efficient passer (not to slight Wilson). However, Wilson has that running factor, as he thrives outside the pocket. These have two totally different styles. Given that, and how Wilson's counting stats aren't all that much fewer than Brady's......I'm calling this a draw.
EDGE: Draw
RB
Legarrette Blount (Patriots): 60 carries/281 yds, 4.7avg, 3TDS, 10rec/54yds, 5.4avg
Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks): 280carries/1,306yds, 4.7avg, 13TDs, 37rec/367yds, 9.9avg, 4TDs
This is a tough position to judge for the Patriots. New England has used so many different starting RBs this season. For the Super Bowl, I'm going to use Blount, given he had the most impact for the Patriot's running game in the AFC Championship Game. However, it doesn't matter much, as Lynch is simply one of the NFL's hardest hitting RBs.
EDGE:
FB
James Develin (Patriots): 3car/5yds, 1.7avg
Will Tukuatu (Seahawks): N/A
This is a pure shot in the dark, but I'm giving the edge here to Develin.
EDGE:
Offensive Line
Nate Solder/Dan Connolly/Bryan Stork/Ryan Wendell/Sebastian Vollmer (Patriots)
258 career starts, 438car/1,727yds, 26scks/82 QB hits
Russell Okung/James Carpenter/Max Unger/J.R Sweezy/Justin Britt (Seahawks)
215 starts, 525car/2,762yds, 42scks/91 QB hits
Offensive Lines are tough to judge, being that there aren't that many true counting stats. Each has to protect a different type of QB (pocket passer vs. a rushing QB). Wilson has been responsible for a good amount of those sacks, given that he has a tendency to rush outside the pocket and hold onto the ball longer than he should. However, Seattle's OL does do a good job run blocking for Lynch. Therefore, its a draw.
EDGE: Draw
TE
Rob Gronkowski (Patriots): 82rec/1,124yds, 13.7avg, 12TDs
Luke Willson (Seahawks): 22rec/362yds, 16.5avg, 3TDs
Luke was forced to replace an injured Zach Miller for the majority of the season, and he's done fairly well. However, Rob Gronkowski has returned to form from his past injury riddled seasons. Gronk is a true X-factor for the Patriots.
EDGE:
WR1
Julian Edelman (Patriots): 92rec/972yds, 10.6avg, 4TDs
Doug Baldwin (Seahawks): 66rec/825yds, 12.5avg, 3TDs
These two receivers have each had to step up their game over the past few seasons; Edelman for the Pats losing Wes Welker, and Baldwin for Seattle losing Golden Tate. Each has done a pretty respectable job (although neither seems like a true #1 WR). Edelman also has an impact on the return game, along with plays designed for him to throw on the reverse (as we saw during New England's playoff run). Therefore, Edelman gets the edge.
EDGE:
WR2
Brandon LaFell (Patriots): 74rec/953yds, 12.9avg, 7TDs
Jermaine Kearse (Seahawks): 38rec/537yds, 14.1avg, 1TD
Kearse has had to step up this season with the Seahawks trading Percy Harvin to the Jets. LaFell, on the other hand, has been the type of deep threat WR that New England has been looking for quite some time.
EDGE:
LE
Rob Ninkovich (Patriots): 62tckls, 8scks, 1 INT
Michael Bennett (Seahawks): 38tckls, 7scks, 1FF
We now start diving into the defense. Bennett has been a stable force on the Seahawks defensive line, but Ninkovich has had more of a presence.
EDGE:
DT1
Vince Wilfork (Patriots): 47tckls, 1 INT
Tony McDaniel (Seahawks): 31tckls
McDaniel has done a valiant effort stepping in for the injured Brandon MeBane, but Wilfork remains the anchor to the Patriots' defensive line. While his peak days may be behind him, Wilfork is still incredibly athletic.
EDGE:
DT2
Chris Jones (Patriots): 25tckls, 3scks
Kevin Williams (Seahawks): 30tckls, 3scks
Quite a range of experience here. You have Chris Jones in his sophomore season, and 10+ year veteran Kevin Williams. Each has been a stable anchor on their respective defensive lines, therefore I'm calling this a draw.
EDGE: Draw
RE
Chandler Jones (Patriots): 43tckls, 6scks, 2FF
Cliff Avril (Seahawks): 23tckls, 5scks, 1FF
This is a close positional battle. On one hand, you have the veteran Avril, who led the defensive line to the Seahawks' Super Bowl 48 victory. On the other, you have the youthful Chandler Jones, the Patriots' 2012 1st rd draft choice, who is starting to flourish. The Patriots usually get a lot of flack on their defense, but players like Jones are just now starting to come into their own.
EDGE:
LOLB:
Jamie Collins (Patriots): 116tckls, 4scks, 4FF, 2INTs
Bruce Irvin (Seahawks): 37tckls, 6.5scks, 1FF, 2INTs
Collins has flown under the radar on this young Patriots defense (much like Chandler Jones). For the Seahawks, Irvin has moved from a defensive end to an outside linebacker, making a seamless transition. Irvin may be the better pass-rusher, but Collins seems to be the better all-around linebacker.
EDGE:
MLB
Akeem Ayers (Patriots): 20tckls, 4scks, 1 INT
Bobby Wagner (Seahawks): 104tckls, 2scks
Ayers has been a nice player for the Patriots, but Wagner is a force to be reckoned with on the Seahawks linebacking corps. Very much an underrated player, you could make the case that Wagner is one of the most important players on the Seahawks defense.
EDGE:
ROLB
Dont'a Hightower (Patriots): 89tckls, 6scks, 1FF
K.J Wright (Seahawks): 107tckls, 2scks, 3FF
This breakdown is similar to the LOLB match-up between Collins and Irvin, but flipped. Hightower had a bounce-back year, with solid pass rushing skills. However, Wright appears to be the better overall linebacker here.
EDGE:
LCB
Darrelle Revis (Patriots): 47tckls, 1FF, 2 INTs
Richard Sherman (Seahawks): 57tckls, 1FF, 4 INTs
Both Revis and Sherman are prolific CB's. Revis has been a saving grace for the Patriots secondary, and all signs point to New England keeping Revis next season. Sherman on the other hand, is arguably the best CB in the game right now. He creates all kinds of problems for offenses. Try and target him at your own free will, or avoid him altogether (which will likely cause your offense to get shut down).
EDGE:
RCB
Brandon Browner (Patriots): 25tckls, 1 INT
Byron Maxwell (Seahawks): 39tckls, 1FF, 2 INTs
Browner had a rocky 2013 with Seattle, dealing with suspensions and injury. However, he's found a new home with the Patriots, pairing with Revis. Maxwell (Browner's replacement), has stepped right into the legion of boom.
EDGE:
(warning: background music is explicit. Apologies)
SS
Patrick Chung (Patriots): 85tckls, 1 INT
Kam Chancellor (Seahawks): 78tckls, 1FF, 1 INT
Each team has a heavy hitter here. Chung has been an integral part of the Patriots secondary. Kam has been a literal heavy hitter for the Legion Of Boom, known for his big hits and tackles. This is a fairly even matchup.
EDGE: Draw
FS
Devin McCourty (Patriots): 68tckls, 1FF, 2 INTs
Earl Thomas (Seahawks): 97tckls, 3FF, 1 INT
McCourty has made a natural transition from CB to FS. Meanwhile, Earl Thomas has been one of the best safeties in the NFL over the last couple of seasons (even Troy Polamalu-like). Thomas is the more impact player in this match-up.
EDGE:
K
Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots): 35/37 fgs, 94.6%, 53 long
Steven Hauschka (Seahawks): 31/37 fgs, 83.8%, 58 long
We now get into the special teams. Each kicker is among the top tier in the NFL. But Gostkowski has been one of the best. He's even starting to make Pats fans forget about Adam Vinatieri (well, not quite), but he is the better kicker here.
EDGE:
P
Ryan Allen (Patriots): 66 punts, 46.4 yd avg, 67 long, 25 inside the 20
Jon Ryan (Seahawks): 61 punts, 44.1 yd avg, 66 long, 28 inside the 20
This is a pretty close punter battle. Allen has the edge on distance, while Ryan has it on accuracy. I'm calling this a draw
EDGE: Draw
Now, time for my prediction. As the betting lines have shown throughout, this super bowl is pretty much being considered as a toss-up. And I have to say, I agree with that sentiment. That makes this prediction even tougher to figure out. On one hand, you have Tom Brady looking for his 4th ring, and the other, one of the most prolific defenses we've ever seen. The difference will be Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. Wilson obviously can't have the start like he had during the NFC Championship Game, and Lynch will have to be that spark-plug for when the offense stalls. For the Patriots, Gronkowski will have to match-up with either Kam Chancellor or Bobby Wagner, which won't be easy.
I think (unlike last year's super bowl), that this one goes down to the wire (maybe even our first OT SB). I'm picking the Seahawks in a close one, 24-20
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