After a long and busy offseason, its just under a week until we'll see the first pitch. So how will this season kick off? Here are my predictions. (Now during the season, I may do a "State Of The Red Sox" podcast during the 1st of the month, but don't hold me to it). Anyway, onto the predictions.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles: 88-74
Boston Red Sox: 87-75
Toronto Blue Jays: 85-77
New York Yankees: 83-79
Tampa Bay Rays: 81-81
The AL East is going to be fascinating. Every team looks like they could easily be in contention if things break right. The Orioles are reigning AL East champs, but lost some talent during the offseason (including Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis), but the Orioles always seem poised to contend ever since Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter's leadership.
The Red Sox have really reloaded (dating back to the 2014 trade deadline). They now at least have 5 legit starting pitchers (although not the ace that fans have been pining for). More importantly though for Boston, is the offensive boost they got in the offseason. The Sox added both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. That, on top with a rejuvenated Mike Napoli (coming off surgery to fix his sleep apnea) along with a full season of Mookie Betts, and the sky could be the limit.
The Blue Jays looked poised to finally realize their potential, but then they lost young SP Marcus Stroman for the season with a knee injury. Can the Blue Jays still put it all together?
The key for the Yankees will be their starting pitching. Can Tanaka's elbow hold up, or will he ultimately need Tommy John surgery? Can CC Sabathia come back and put up a productive campaign? And can Michael Pineda have a full healthy season?
The Rays are entering a new era, losing manager Joe Maddon to the Cubs, and GM Andrew Friedman to the Dodgers. The Rays may still have the pitching to contend though, that is if they can withstand the early injuries they've seen in spring training.
Ultimately, in such a packed division, I see the Orioles repeating as division champions. But this could be a division where everyone is in the wild card hunt.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox: 85-77
Detroit Tigers: 84-78
Cleveland Indians: 84-78
Kansas City Royals: 83-79
Minnesota Twins: 77-85
I think the AL Central could be just as competitive as the AL East (minus the still up and coming Twins). The Cubs got a lot of attention for their offseason moves, but the White Sox were just as productive. They added Adam Laroche, which will give Jose Abreu some days off to DH. They also swung a deal for Jeff Samardzija, giving them a front 4 of Sale/Samardzija/Quintana, and potentially top prospect Carlos Rodon within a month's time. But that wasn't all, they also fortified their bullpen with David Robertson and Zach Duke.
The Tigers saw their ace Max Scherzer leave via free agency to the Nationals. They brought back Victor Martinez, but how will he hold up? He's already been banged up in spring training. You get the sense with the Tigers that their window of contention is starting to rapidly close.
The Indians made some moves of their own, bringing in Brandon Moss in a trade from the A's. The question for the Indians will be how their pitching holds up.
The Royals, coming off an AL pennant winning season , might take a step back. They lost Billy Butler and workhorse SP James Shields in free agency. They could still contend, but they'll have to deal with a revamped White Sox and an improved Indians team.
As for the Twins....their prospects are within a year or two of debuting. Their time will come eventually....but not now.
Most like the Tigers, but I just think their age will get them this time around. I think with their retooling, the White Sox will break out.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels: 92-70
Seattle Mariners: 90-72
Oakland Athletics: 84-78
Houston Astros: 80-82
Texas Rangers: 76-86
The AL West looks like a 3-team race. The Angels could have problems in the back of their rotation and at second base. But they have Mike Trout.....and that's all that really matters.
The Mariners have a potent lineup that now includes Nelson Cruz, along with Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. That, with "King Felix" Hernandez, and the Mariners could finally break out.
The Athletics went through a mini-rebuild, shipping off Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija and Brandon Moss (along with losing trade acquisition Jon Lester in free agency). However, they got back some interesting pieces. They may still contend, but the Angels and Mariners will make for tough competition.
The Astros have accelerated their rebuild, trading for Evan Gattis and adding to their bullpen in Pat Neshek and Luke Gregerson. Their prospects are coming up, and they could be contenders come 2016.
The Rangers may get Prince Fielder and Shin Soo Choo back, but they suffered a dramatic loss in Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery. I just can't see the Rangers contending.
I think it'll be a tight race, but I like the Angels to repeat.
AL Playoff Teams:
AL East: Orioles
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Angels
AL Wildcard: Mariners
AL Wildcard: Red Sox
AL MVP:
Lately when talking about the AL MVP, its impossible to bet against Mike Trout...so I won't.
AL Cy Young:
Last year's cy young race was a close one between Felix Hernandez and the eventual winner Corey Kluber. I think King Felix gets it this time around, as he drives the Mariners to the postseason
NL East
Washington Nationals: 93-69
Miami Marlins: 86-76
New York Mets: 84-78
Atlanta Braves: 73-89
Philadelphia Phillies: 62-100
The Nationals still look like favorites in the NL East, but it could get closer. The Nationals have one of the top rotations in baseball, that now includes free agent signing Max Scherzer. They'll start the season with some injuries, with Jayson Werth and Denard Span, but I think they'll weather the storm.
The Marlins made some big moves in the offseason, signing Giancarlo Stanton to a long-term extension, and adding Dee Gordon, Mat Latos and Dan Haren. Plus, they'll have young fireballer Jose Fernandez returning soon from Tommy John surgery. With one of the top young outfields in the game, the Marlins could be contenders.
The Mets thought this would be their year to contend, and it may still be; however they suffered a devastating loss with Zach Wheeler requiring Tommy John Surgery. They still have a handful of young pitching prospects who are on the cusp, but everything will have to break right for them.
The Braves are in a rebuilding phase as they prepare to move into their new stadium in a couple of years. They traded away Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis. Will they continue to move pieces? (Updated): Well, 1 day before opening day, the Braves shipped off star closer Craig Kimbrel along with salary albatross OF Melvin Upton Jr to the Padres for a pair of mediocre major leaguers (Cameron Maybin/Carlos Quentin), along with prospects Jordan Paraoubeck and Matt Wisler. So this is definitely a rebuild season.
And the Phillies........well......they still have Cole Hamels (but probably not for long). The Phillies are in for a long rebuild.
The NL East will be closer than last season, but its still the Nats to lose.
NL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates: 91-71
St. Louis Cardinals: 89-73
Chicago Cubs: 84-78
Milwaukee Brewers: 80-82
Cincinnati Reds: 79-83
The Pirates have been on the up and up for a couple of seasons now, and this could be the year they break out. It'll require Gerrit Cole living up to his hype, but the Pirates have a young core in place, ready to win.
The Cardinals have been a consistent team for a while now. They have a farm system that continues to just churn out player after player. Its hard to find any weakness with this team (especially with the addition of Jason Heyward), but there could be some durability issues in the back of their rotation.
The Cubs are finally arriving, as they showed this offseason adding Jon Lester. Everything would have to break right with their prospects to contend this season, but don't count them out, especially with manager Joe Maddon.
The Brewers are in an awkward stage. They aren't quite contenders.....but they aren't in a position where they have to rebuild. I think that paints them as a .500 team.
The Reds fell off towards the end of last season. With their window closing, they started a mini-rebuild, moving Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon. But with their farm system, it shouldn't be long before they move back up.
This division could go down to the wire between the Cardinals and Pirates, but I think the Pirates finally come out on top.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers: 90-72
San Diego Padres: 87-75
San Francisco Giants: 83-79
Colorado Rockies: 72-90
Arizona Diamondbacks: 70-92
The Dodgers look like the frontrunners in the NL West. Not only do they have the money now, but they also have the strategy, with the addition of Andrew Friedman to the front office. The Dodgers shipped off Dee Gordon and Matt Kemp, and added Howie Kendrick. They also made an international move adding Hector Olivera, although he doesn't have a starting spot this season. The Dodgers have some injury concerns in the back of their rotation, but I think they should be able to get through it.
The Padres brought in AJ Preller to the front office, and he made a host of changes. The Padres acquired Justin Upton, Derrick Norris, James Shields and Matt Kemp. Defense will be a question mark for this team, but they could contend. (Update): Defense may be less of a question with Maybin and Quentin gone. Also, their BP just got significantly increased with Craig Kimbrel in the fold. The question now is what's Joaquin Benoit's role? Could he be used to improve their SS situation? Or will the Padres just go in with a lights out set-up man/closer combination?
The Giants are coming off another world series, but they have some holes in their roster. Their rotation could be shaky, pending on Matt Cain's recovery, not to mention the loss of 3B Pablo Sandoval. It may be another mini-recovery year for the Giants.
The Rockies and D'Backs both look like bottom feeders in this division.
The Padres may challenge if it all breaks right, but I like the Dodgers in the division.
NL Playoff Teams:
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Pirates
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Cardinals
NL Wildcard: Padres
NL MVP:
Coming off a massive extension along with a retooled team, I think Giancarlo Stanton is going to have a huge year.
NL Cy Young:
He's been on a roll the last few years, and I don't think it'll stop now. I like Clayton Kershaw to win another one.
World Series:
I like the Seattle Mariners to make a Kansas City Royals' style run this year to take the AL Championship. But I like the Washington Nationals to take it all. This may be their last chance with this current roster, with the likes of Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmerman (and many more) heading towards free agency. I think this is finally their year.
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