Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Super Bowl Preview




Its almost time to watch who will win it all at "The Big Game". Will Brady + Belichick get yet another title, continuing this unprecedented run? Or will Atlanta get just its 2nd major championship as a city and see Matt Ryan enter the ranks of one of the top QBs today with a ring? Time for my position by position breakdown


QBs
Patriots - Tom Brady

12 Games/starts, 67.4 compl%, 3,554yds 28TDs/2INTs


Falcons - Matt Ryan
16 Games/starts, 69.9 compl%, 4,944yds, 38TDs/7INTs

A pretty even QB match-up. On one hand, you have Brady and his prior super bowl experience. Missing the first 4 games of the season due to suspension didn't seem to slow him down, as he threw only a pair of INTs on the year. But with Matt Ryan, you have a top MVP candidate as he put up a personal best kind of season. 

edge: Even






RBs
Patriots - LeGarrette Blount
16 Games/8 Starts, 299rushes/1,161yds 18TDS,   7rec/38yds


Falcons - DeVonta Freeman
16 Games/starts, 227rushes/1,079yds 11TDs, 54rec/462yds 2TDs

Freeman is the better receiving back in this matchup, but Blount gets the overall edge. Blount set the standard this season when it comes to rushing TDs. A major key for the Falcons on defense will be trying to control him.

edge: Patriots





WRs
Patriots- Julian Edelman
16 Games/13 starts, 98rec/1,106yds 3TDs

Chris Hogan
15 Games/14 starts, 38rec/680yds 4TDs


Falcons - Julio Jones
14 Games/starts, 83rec/1,409yds 6TDs

Justin Hardy
16 games/3 starts, 21rec/203yds 4TDs

The Patriots have a good 1-2 combo with Edelman and Hogan (the latter who had an explosive game in the AFC title game). But there's just no matching Julio Jones. Much like with Blount, the big ask for the Patriots' defense will be trying to figure out Jones.

edge: Falcons








TEs
Patriots - Martellus Bennett
16games/12starts, 55rec/701yds 7TDs


Falcons - Austin Hooper
14games/3starts, 19rec/271yds 3TDs


Both teams have been hit with TE injuries, the Pats with Rob Gronkowski and the Falcons with Jacob Tamme. Luckily for the Pats, they have Bennett who is a solid target for Brady in his own right.

edge: Patriots






DEs
Patriots - Chris Long
16games/7starts, 1FF/1FR, 4scks 22tckls

Trey Flowers
16games/8starts, 2FR, 7scks 23tckls


Falcons - Brooks Reed
15games/7starts, 1FF, 2scks 14tckls

Tyson Jackson
16games/7starts, 5tckls


With the veteran Chris Long, along with Flowers and his pass rush moves, the Patriots have the edge in this matchup.

edge: Patriots









DTs
Patriots - Alan Branch
16games/15starts, 1.5scks 26tckls

Malcom Brown
16games/13starts, 1FF, 3scks 24tckls


Falcons - Jonathan Babineaux
16games/6starts, 14tckls

Grady Jarrett
16games/14starts, 1FR, 3scks 21tckls

Branch and Brown provide the Patriots with a nice balance in the trenches.

edge: Patriots








LBs
Patriots - Shea McClellin
14games/4starts, 2FR, 1sck 16tckls

Dont'a Hightower
13games/starts, 1FF, 2.5scks 31tckls

Rob Ninkovich
12games/11starts, 2FF, 4scks 17tckls


Falcons - Vic Beasley
16games/12starts, 6FF/1FR, 15.5scks 32tckls

Deion Jones
15games/13starts, 3INTs/2TDs, 1FF 75tckls

De'Vondre Campbell
11games/10starts, 1INT, 1FF 35tckls

The Patriots LBs collectively put up a strong effort, but the Falcons featured more playmakers, especially with sack leader Vic Beasley and Deion Jones and his takeaways.

edge: Falcons











CBs
Patriots - Logan Ryan




16games/13starts, 2INTs, 1FF, 1sck 73tckls

Malcolm Butler
16games/starts, 4INTs, 1FF, 1sck 48tckls


Falcons - Robert Alford
16games/starts, 2INTs/1TD 50tckls

Jalen Collins
8games/6starts, 2INTs 28tckls

Malcolm Butler makes the difference here, paired with Logan Ryan

edge: Patriots








Safeties
Patriots - Patrick Chung


16games/starts, 1INT, 1FR, 1sck 48tckls

Devin McCourty
16games/starts, 1INT, 1FF 64tckls


Falcons - Ricardo Allen
16games/starts, 2INTs 61tckls

Keanu Neal
14games/starts, 5FF/1FR 72tckls

Chung and McCourty have both been solid, but Keanu Neal (in his rookie year) has been quite the presence for the Falcons secondary. (sidenote: I profiled him during my steelers draft prospect series a year ago). 

edge: Falcons









Kickers
Patriots - Stephen Gostkowski




16games, 27/32FGs, 53long

Falcons - Matt Bryant
16games, 34/37FGs, 59long

Two quality kickers. He may have been added by playing his home games in a dome, but I'll give the slight edge to the longtime vet Matt Bryant.

edge: Falcons




Punter
Patriots - Ryan Allen
16games, 72punts, 58long 44.7avg

Falcons - Matt Bosher
15games, 44punts, 68long, 46.8avg

With how active the Falcons offense was this season, they didn't have to use much of Bosher. That being said, both Allen and Bosher seem fairly even

edge: even




Now time for my ultimate pick. I expect we'll get a close contest, going down to the wire. You never want to bet against Brady, but one item that popped out to me was the fact that Matt Ryan threw receiving TDs to 13 different players. That's right, 13. That amount of depth could be enough for the Falcons to pull this off.


31-27 Falcons
























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