Its almost time to watch who will win it all at "The Big Game". Will Brady + Belichick get yet another title, continuing this unprecedented run? Or will Atlanta get just its 2nd major championship as a city and see Matt Ryan enter the ranks of one of the top QBs today with a ring? Time for my position by position breakdown
QBs
Patriots - Tom Brady
12 Games/starts, 67.4 compl%, 3,554yds 28TDs/2INTs
Falcons - Matt Ryan
16 Games/starts, 69.9 compl%, 4,944yds, 38TDs/7INTs
A pretty even QB match-up. On one hand, you have Brady and his prior super bowl experience. Missing the first 4 games of the season due to suspension didn't seem to slow him down, as he threw only a pair of INTs on the year. But with Matt Ryan, you have a top MVP candidate as he put up a personal best kind of season.
edge: Even
RBs
Patriots - LeGarrette Blount
16 Games/8 Starts, 299rushes/1,161yds 18TDS, 7rec/38yds
Falcons - DeVonta Freeman
16 Games/starts, 227rushes/1,079yds 11TDs, 54rec/462yds 2TDs
Freeman is the better receiving back in this matchup, but Blount gets the overall edge. Blount set the standard this season when it comes to rushing TDs. A major key for the Falcons on defense will be trying to control him.
edge: Patriots
WRs
Patriots- Julian Edelman
16 Games/13 starts, 98rec/1,106yds 3TDs
Chris Hogan
15 Games/14 starts, 38rec/680yds 4TDs
Falcons - Julio Jones
14 Games/starts, 83rec/1,409yds 6TDs
Justin Hardy
16 games/3 starts, 21rec/203yds 4TDs
The Patriots have a good 1-2 combo with Edelman and Hogan (the latter who had an explosive game in the AFC title game). But there's just no matching Julio Jones. Much like with Blount, the big ask for the Patriots' defense will be trying to figure out Jones.
edge: Falcons
TEs
Patriots - Martellus Bennett
16games/12starts, 55rec/701yds 7TDs
Falcons - Austin Hooper
14games/3starts, 19rec/271yds 3TDs
Both teams have been hit with TE injuries, the Pats with Rob Gronkowski and the Falcons with Jacob Tamme. Luckily for the Pats, they have Bennett who is a solid target for Brady in his own right.
edge: Patriots
DEs
Patriots - Chris Long
16games/7starts, 1FF/1FR, 4scks 22tckls
Trey Flowers
16games/8starts, 2FR, 7scks 23tckls
Falcons - Brooks Reed
15games/7starts, 1FF, 2scks 14tckls
Tyson Jackson
16games/7starts, 5tckls
With the veteran Chris Long, along with Flowers and his pass rush moves, the Patriots have the edge in this matchup.
edge: Patriots
DTs
Patriots - Alan Branch
16games/15starts, 1.5scks 26tckls
Malcom Brown
16games/13starts, 1FF, 3scks 24tckls
Falcons - Jonathan Babineaux
16games/6starts, 14tckls
Grady Jarrett
16games/14starts, 1FR, 3scks 21tckls
Branch and Brown provide the Patriots with a nice balance in the trenches.
edge: Patriots
LBs
Patriots - Shea McClellin
14games/4starts, 2FR, 1sck 16tckls
Dont'a Hightower
13games/starts, 1FF, 2.5scks 31tckls
Rob Ninkovich
12games/11starts, 2FF, 4scks 17tckls
Falcons - Vic Beasley
16games/12starts, 6FF/1FR, 15.5scks 32tckls
Deion Jones
15games/13starts, 3INTs/2TDs, 1FF 75tckls
De'Vondre Campbell
11games/10starts, 1INT, 1FF 35tckls
The Patriots LBs collectively put up a strong effort, but the Falcons featured more playmakers, especially with sack leader Vic Beasley and Deion Jones and his takeaways.
edge: Falcons
CBs
Patriots - Logan Ryan
16games/13starts, 2INTs, 1FF, 1sck 73tckls
Malcolm Butler
16games/starts, 4INTs, 1FF, 1sck 48tckls
Falcons - Robert Alford
16games/starts, 2INTs/1TD 50tckls
Jalen Collins
8games/6starts, 2INTs 28tckls
Malcolm Butler makes the difference here, paired with Logan Ryan
edge: Patriots
Safeties
Patriots - Patrick Chung
16games/starts, 1INT, 1FR, 1sck 48tckls
Devin McCourty
16games/starts, 1INT, 1FF 64tckls
Falcons - Ricardo Allen
16games/starts, 2INTs 61tckls
Keanu Neal
14games/starts, 5FF/1FR 72tckls
Chung and McCourty have both been solid, but Keanu Neal (in his rookie year) has been quite the presence for the Falcons secondary. (sidenote: I profiled him during my steelers draft prospect series a year ago).
edge: Falcons
Kickers
Patriots - Stephen Gostkowski
16games, 27/32FGs, 53long
Falcons - Matt Bryant
16games, 34/37FGs, 59long
Two quality kickers. He may have been added by playing his home games in a dome, but I'll give the slight edge to the longtime vet Matt Bryant.
edge: Falcons
Punter
Patriots - Ryan Allen
16games, 72punts, 58long 44.7avg
Falcons - Matt Bosher
15games, 44punts, 68long, 46.8avg
With how active the Falcons offense was this season, they didn't have to use much of Bosher. That being said, both Allen and Bosher seem fairly even
edge: even
Now time for my ultimate pick. I expect we'll get a close contest, going down to the wire. You never want to bet against Brady, but one item that popped out to me was the fact that Matt Ryan threw receiving TDs to 13 different players. That's right, 13. That amount of depth could be enough for the Falcons to pull this off.
31-27 Falcons
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