The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will face off Sunday for the ultimate title. Who has the advantages and will come out ahead? In this preview, I'll do a positional break-down to see who has the edge and where, followed by my own prediction.
QB
Patriots: Tom Brady
16G/S, 66.3 compl%, 4,577yds, 32TDs/8INTs
Eagles: Nick Foles
7G/3S, 56.4compl%, 537yds, 5TDs/2INTs
There isn't much of a discussion here. While Foles played like the former pro bowl version of himself in the NFC Championship Game, Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. With another high caliber season, Brady clearly gets the edge here.
Advantage: New England
RB1
Patriots: Dion Lewis
16G/8S, 180att/896yds, 6TDs. 32rec/214yds, 3TDs
Eagles: LeGarrete Blount
16G/11S, 173att/766yds, 2TDs. 8rec/50yds, 1TD
While Blount gives you that power back type, Dion Lewis is more of an all-around guy, rushing and receiving.
Advantage: New England
RB2
Patriots: James White
14G/4S, 43att/171yds. 56rec/429yds, 3TDs
Eagles: Jay Ajayi
14G/8S, 208att/873yds, 1TD. 24rec/158yds, 1TD
The roles are flipped here as compared to RB1. White hasn't been asked to do much on the ground, while Ajayi has provided a spark for the Eagles offense.
Advantage: Philadelphia
OL
Patriots: Nate Solder, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Cameron Fleming
250 career starts, 448att/1,889yds, 4.2avg, 35scks/84hits
Eagles: Halapoulivvati Vaitai, Stefen Wisniewski, Jason Kelce, Brandon Brooks, Lane Johnson
343career starts, 473att/2,115yds, 4.5avg, 36scks/107hits
In terms of the running game, both lines are fairly even. However, the Patriots allowed less hits on Brady, which is important given his status as a pocket passer.
Advantage: New England
WR
Patriots: Brandin Cooks
16G/15S, 65rec/1,082yds, 7TDs
Chris Hogan
9G/7S, 34rec/439yds, 5TDs
Eagles: Alshon Jeffery
16G/S, 57rec/789yds, 9TDs
Nelson Agholor
16G/10S, 62rec/768yds, 8TDs
Torrey Smith
16G/14S, 36rec/430yds, 2TDs
As prolific of a season as Cooks had, the Eagles have more depth overall with Jeffery, Agholor and Smith.
Advantage: Philadelphia
TE
Patriots: Rob Gronkowski
14G/S, 69rec/1,084yds, 8TDs
Eagles: Zach Ertz
14G/13S, 74rec/824yds, 8TDs
Ertz is a solid TE and should be a favorite target of Foles's, but Gronk causes defenses to have to scheme more. He's coming off a concussion, but he should be good to go.
Advantage: New England
DE
Patriots: Eric Lee
6G/5S, 10tckls/3.5scks, 1sfty, 1INT, 2PD
Trey Flowers
14G/S, 45tckls/6.5scks, 3PD
Eagles: Vinny Curry
16G/S, 25tckls/3scks, 1FF
Brandon Graham
15G/S, 33tckls/9.5scks, 2FF, 1FR/1TD, 3PD
As solid as Flowers was, the Eagles got more overall production from their defensive ends, especially Graham.
Advantage: Philadelphia
DT
Patriots: Lawrence Guy
16G/15S, 34tckls/1sck, 1PD
Malcom Brown
13G/12S, 29tckls/2.5scks
Eagles: Tim Jernigan
15G/S, 16tckls/2.5scks
Fletcher Cox
14G/S, 15tckls/5.5scks, 1FF, 2FR/1TD, 1PD
The Patriots duo produced more stops, but the Eagles saw more sacks and takeaways. In this instance, I'm calling it even.
Advantage: Even
LB
Patriots: Kyle Van Noy
13G/12S, 58tckls/5.5scks, 1FF, 2FR/1TD, 1PD
Elandon Roberts
15G/14S, 44tckls/2scks, 1FR, 1PD
Eagles: Mychal Kendricks
15G/13S, 51tckls/2scks, 6PD
Dannell Ellerbe
3G/2S, 6tckls
Nigel Bradham
15G/S, 61tckls/1sck, 1FF, 1FR, 8PD
The Patriots LB corps were more productive tackling and getting to the QB, but the Eagles unit were better in coverage.
Advantage: Even
CB
Patriots: Stephon Gilmore
13G/S, 47tckls, 2INTs, 9PD
Malcolm Butler
16G/15S, 55tckls/1sck, 3FF, 2INTs, 12PD
Eagles: Jalen Mills
15G/S, 51tckls, 3INTs/1TD, 14PD
Ronald Darby
8G/7S, 30tckls, 3INTs, 9PD
The Patriots have a decent group of cornerbacks, but the Eagles pair of Mills and Darby were more productive. Just look at what Darby was able to put up in a shortened season.
Advantage: Philadelphia
S
Patriots: Patrick Chung
16G/11S, 67tckls, 2FR, 1INT, 9PD
Devin McCourty
16G/S, 77tckls/1sck, 1FR, 1INT, 5PD
Duron Harmon
16G/3S, 16tckls, 4INTs, 7PD
Eagles: Rodney McLeod
14G/S, 35tckls, 1FF, 2FR, 3INTs, 6PD
Malcolm Jenkins
16G/S, 57tckls/1sck, 1FF, 1FR, 8PD
Another matchup that looks fairly even in terms of takeaways, but the Patriots produced more tackles, with Harmon leading this group in INTs.
Advantage:New England
K
Patriots: Stephen Gostkowski
16G, 92.5fg% (37/40), 62lng, 95.7xp% (45/47)
Eagles: Jake Elliot
15G, 83.9fg% (26/31), 61lng, 92.9xp% (39/42)
Gostkowski has since long gotten out from under Adam Vinateri's shadow.
Advantage: New England
P
Patriots: Ryan Allen
16G, 58pnts/2,515yds, 60lng, 43.4avg
Eagles: Donnie Jones
16G, 67pnts/3,033yds, 62lng, 45.3avg
Advantage: Philadelphia
And now for my main prediction. This will all come down to whether the Eagles will be able to disrupt Brady, and if Foles can put up a similar performance which we know he's capable of. I think this will be another close game, going down to the wire. I was planning on trying to avoid "jinxing" the Eagles' underdog status and go ahead and pick the Patriots....but I'm going to pick the Eagles. They've shown to have faith in Foles during these playoffs, which is a huge factor. But what I think will be the deciding factor is a different adjustment the Eagles made during the season.....Jay Ajayi. That combo of Ajayi and Blount should be able to produce a good 1-2 combo, opening up that passing game.
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