Saturday, February 3, 2018

Super Bowl 52 Preview

The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will face off Sunday for the ultimate title. Who has the advantages and will come out ahead? In this preview, I'll do a positional break-down to see who has the edge and where, followed by my own prediction.


QB
Patriots: Tom Brady
16G/S, 66.3 compl%, 4,577yds, 32TDs/8INTs











Eagles: Nick Foles
 7G/3S, 56.4compl%, 537yds, 5TDs/2INTs









There isn't much of a discussion here. While Foles played like the former pro bowl version of himself in the NFC Championship Game, Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. With another high caliber season, Brady clearly gets the edge here.
Advantage: New England



RB1
Patriots: Dion Lewis
 16G/8S, 180att/896yds, 6TDs. 32rec/214yds, 3TDs










Eagles: LeGarrete Blount
16G/11S, 173att/766yds, 2TDs. 8rec/50yds, 1TD









While Blount gives you that power back type, Dion Lewis is more of an all-around guy, rushing and receiving.
Advantage: New England



RB2
Patriots: James White
  14G/4S, 43att/171yds. 56rec/429yds, 3TDs










Eagles: Jay Ajayi
 14G/8S, 208att/873yds, 1TD. 24rec/158yds, 1TD









The roles are flipped here as compared to RB1. White hasn't been asked to do much on the ground, while Ajayi has provided a spark for the Eagles offense.
Advantage: Philadelphia


OL
Patriots: Nate Solder, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Cameron Fleming

 250 career starts, 448att/1,889yds, 4.2avg, 35scks/84hits








Eagles: Halapoulivvati Vaitai, Stefen Wisniewski, Jason Kelce, Brandon Brooks, Lane Johnson

 343career starts, 473att/2,115yds, 4.5avg, 36scks/107hits









In terms of the running game, both lines are fairly even. However, the Patriots allowed less hits on Brady, which is important given his status as a pocket passer.
Advantage: New England



WR
Patriots: Brandin Cooks
  16G/15S, 65rec/1,082yds, 7TDs









Chris Hogan
  9G/7S, 34rec/439yds, 5TDs











Eagles: Alshon Jeffery
  16G/S, 57rec/789yds, 9TDs










Nelson Agholor
  16G/10S, 62rec/768yds, 8TDs









Torrey Smith
  16G/14S, 36rec/430yds, 2TDs









As prolific of a season as Cooks had, the Eagles have more depth overall with Jeffery, Agholor and Smith.
Advantage: Philadelphia




TE
Patriots: Rob Gronkowski
 14G/S, 69rec/1,084yds, 8TDs













Eagles: Zach Ertz
 14G/13S, 74rec/824yds, 8TDs









Ertz is a solid TE and should be a favorite target of Foles's, but Gronk causes defenses to have to scheme more. He's coming off a concussion, but he should be good to go.
Advantage: New England



 DE
Patriots: Eric Lee
  6G/5S, 10tckls/3.5scks, 1sfty, 1INT, 2PD













Trey Flowers
 14G/S, 45tckls/6.5scks, 3PD











Eagles: Vinny Curry
 16G/S, 25tckls/3scks, 1FF












Brandon Graham
 15G/S, 33tckls/9.5scks, 2FF, 1FR/1TD, 3PD









As solid as Flowers was, the Eagles got more overall production from their defensive ends, especially Graham.
Advantage: Philadelphia




DT
Patriots: Lawrence Guy
 16G/15S, 34tckls/1sck, 1PD












Malcom Brown
 13G/12S, 29tckls/2.5scks














Eagles: Tim Jernigan
 15G/S, 16tckls/2.5scks









Fletcher Cox
 14G/S, 15tckls/5.5scks, 1FF, 2FR/1TD, 1PD












The Patriots duo produced more stops, but the Eagles saw more sacks and takeaways. In this instance, I'm calling it even.
Advantage: Even





LB
Patriots: Kyle Van Noy
 13G/12S, 58tckls/5.5scks, 1FF, 2FR/1TD, 1PD










Elandon Roberts
 15G/14S, 44tckls/2scks, 1FR, 1PD











Eagles: Mychal Kendricks
 15G/13S, 51tckls/2scks, 6PD











Dannell Ellerbe
 3G/2S, 6tckls











Nigel Bradham
 15G/S, 61tckls/1sck, 1FF, 1FR, 8PD












The Patriots LB corps were more productive tackling and getting to the QB, but the Eagles unit were better in coverage. 
Advantage: Even





CB
Patriots: Stephon Gilmore
 13G/S, 47tckls, 2INTs, 9PD










Malcolm Butler
 16G/15S, 55tckls/1sck, 3FF, 2INTs, 12PD










Eagles: Jalen Mills
 15G/S, 51tckls, 3INTs/1TD, 14PD













Ronald Darby
 8G/7S, 30tckls, 3INTs, 9PD









The Patriots have a decent group of cornerbacks, but the Eagles pair of Mills and Darby were more productive. Just look at what Darby was able to put up in a shortened season.
Advantage: Philadelphia





S
Patriots: Patrick Chung
 16G/11S, 67tckls, 2FR, 1INT, 9PD










Devin McCourty
 16G/S, 77tckls/1sck, 1FR, 1INT, 5PD










Duron Harmon
 16G/3S, 16tckls, 4INTs, 7PD














Eagles: Rodney McLeod
 14G/S, 35tckls, 1FF, 2FR, 3INTs, 6PD













Malcolm Jenkins
 16G/S, 57tckls/1sck, 1FF, 1FR, 8PD









Another matchup that looks fairly even in terms of takeaways, but the Patriots produced more tackles, with Harmon leading this group in INTs.
Advantage:New England





K
Patriots: Stephen Gostkowski
 16G, 92.5fg% (37/40), 62lng, 95.7xp% (45/47)










Eagles: Jake Elliot
 15G, 83.9fg% (26/31), 61lng, 92.9xp% (39/42)












Gostkowski has since long gotten out from under Adam Vinateri's shadow. 
Advantage: New England




P
Patriots: Ryan Allen
 16G, 58pnts/2,515yds, 60lng, 43.4avg













Eagles: Donnie Jones
 16G, 67pnts/3,033yds, 62lng, 45.3avg













Advantage: Philadelphia 




And now for my main prediction. This will all come down to whether the Eagles will be able to disrupt Brady, and if Foles can put up a similar performance which we know he's capable of. I think this will be another close game, going down to the wire. I was planning on trying to avoid "jinxing" the Eagles' underdog status and go ahead and pick the Patriots....but I'm going to pick the Eagles. They've shown to have faith in Foles during these playoffs, which is a huge factor. But what I think will be the deciding factor is a different adjustment the Eagles made during the season.....Jay Ajayi. That combo of Ajayi and Blount should be able to produce a good 1-2 combo, opening up that passing game.

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