Its time for the Oscars. This is shaping up to be one of the tightest Best Picture races in years, and the supporting actor races are also fairly close with no real clear frontrunner.
These Oscars though have been shrouded in the "#OscarsSoWhite" controversy, with no real diversity among the acting nominees. Now, I could get into a whole separate post on that, but I won't do that here. To keep it short, I think there are some problems with the Academy voting board, but its ultimately an industry problem.
Now throughout this predictions post, I'll briefly summarize each best picture nominee (in order from my personal preference, 8th to 1st).
Best Writing (Original Screenplay):
Bridge Of Spies (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Matt Charman)
Spotlight (Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer)
Ex Machina (Alex Garland)
Inside Out (Pete Docter, Ronnie Del Carmen, Josh Cooley)
Straight Outta Compton (Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge)
It was nice to see Inside Out get this screenplay nod, but this feels like a pretty open & shut case, considering the Writer's Guild win by Spotlight.
Pick: Spotlight
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
The Big Short (Adam McKay, Charles Randolph)
Brooklyn (Nick Hornby)
Carol (Phyllis Nagy)
The Martian (Drew Goddard)
Room (Emma Donoghue)
As we move into Adapted Screenplay, we see more of the Best Picture nominees. There's a chance we could see a spoiler here, but I think this follows along with the Writer's Guild Awards just like Original Screenplay.
Pick: The Big Short
Best Picture Nominee: The Martian
Astronaut Mark Watney is left behind on Mars after a damaging storm, and is left to try and survive before a rescue attempt can be tried. As a sci-fi movie it was pretty good, although it did come off a bit like "Cast Away on Mars".
Best Visual Effects:
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
This is shaping up to be a close race. For once, there aren't any Michael Bay led "blockbusters", but a category full of quality movies. Its likely going to come down to Mad Max or Star Wars. If Mad Max were to pull off a Best Picture upset, its going to have to clean house in categories like this. However, I'm going with Star Wars here. One of its strong points was that it was just a gorgeous film, including the StarKiller base ice planet.
Pick: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Sound Mixing:
Bridge Of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: Force Awakens
Now time for the ever mystifying sound categories. I won't pretend to know the difference between mixing and editing, but these two usually go hand in hand. Again, this could come down to Mad Max and Star Wars (although if The Revenant took these, it could be a sign of things to come). I think Mad Max will start to get its win here.
Pick: Mad Max:Fury Road
Best Sound Editing:
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: Force Awakens
As goes Mixing, usually goes editing.
Pick: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Picture Nominee: Brooklyn
An Irish immigrant looks for a new and better life in Brooklyn and finds love; but also temptation back home. This was a good period piece, and Saoirse Ronan was amazing, but the pace felt a little frantic at times. I didn't feel like we saw enough of her love interest (Tony).
Best Short Film (Live Action):
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Stutterer
These short film categories are always a crap-shoot. But from seeing the trailers, along with prior nominations, I'm going with Shok. It centers around two young boys and how they get along during the Kosovo War during the 1990s.
Pick: Shok
Best Short Film (Animated):
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World Of Tomorrow
Short Film Animated can be a little easier to predict. A Pixar short is nominated (Sanjay's Super Team), but the film that seems to be getting critical acclaim is World Of Tomorrow. Its a sci-fi film about a girl who goes on a wild tour of her future. Just from the trailer alone, its amazing how much this team was able to do in such a short amount of time.
Pick: World Of Tomorrow
Best Picture Nominee: Bridge Of Spies
An insurance lawyer is thrust into negotiations to swap spies in this Cold-War era thriller. The first half of this film had some pacing issues, but once it finds its way it really gets going. Mark Rylance was brilliant as well.
Best Production Design:
Bridge Of Spies
The Danish Girl
Max Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
This could be another tell-tale sign if The Revenant is on its way to a big win. Its a contender here, along with Mad Max. On one-hand, we have snowy terrain and lush forests, against a barren desert. I think Mad Max takes this. What made that movie work so much was its realistic landscape and design of the world it was set in.
Pick: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Music (Original Song):
"Earned It", (Fifty Shades Of Grey)
"Manta Ray", (Racing Extinction)
"Simple Song #3", (Youth)
"Til It Happens To You" , (The Hunting Ground)
"Writing's On The Wall", (Spectre)
Unlike prior years where we had runaway winners like "Let It Go", this category has been fairly open this year. Both what should win, what I think will win is "Til It Happens To You" by Lady Gaga. Its such a powerful and emotional song, centering around sexual assault. Lady Gaga got a lot of flack early on in her career, but over the past few years, she's proven that she is a true artist in every sense of the word.
Pick: "Til It Happens To You"(The Hunting Ground)
Best Music (Original Score):
Bridge Of Spies (Thomas Newman)
Carol (Carter Burwell)
The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
Sicario (Johann Johannsson)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (John Williams)
The Hateful Eight very well may take this, but I'm predicting a John Williams win for Star Wars. He was able to build upon his already great Star Wars compositions. Maybe it ends up being a should win/will win scenario, but I'm calling a Star Wars Oscar.
Pick: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Picture Nominee: The Revenant
Battered and left for dead, frontiersman Hugh Glass fights to survive with revenge on his mind for his murdered son. This film was beautifully shot, with a tremendous performance by Leonardo DiCaprio, along with Tom Hardy. The only real drawback was its length.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window And Disappeared
The Revenant
You can make the case for The Revenant here, with Leo's grungy look, but I think this will be another win for Mad Max. Two pieces of evidence in favor of a win here? Charlize Theron's hairstyle (or lack thereof), and the makeup/look of the character Immortan Joe.
Pick: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Foreign Language Film:
Embrace Of The Serpent
Mustang
Son Of Saul
Theeb
A War
This can be tough to predict, but reading through the tea-leaves, it looks like Son Of Saul is going to win. A Hungarian WWII film about a jewish worker who looks to give a child a proper burial, its been receiving critical acclaim.
Best Film Editing:
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
This race is kind of like Visual Effects, in the sense that its wide open. You could really make cases for any 5, but the main contenders seem to the The Big Short, Mad Max and Spotlight. Call it a whim, but I'm going with Spotlight. For a movie about journalism, the editing and pacing made it a gripping movie.
Pick: Spotlight
Best Picture Nominee: Mad Max: Fury Road
Another edition to the Mad Max franchise, this one finds Immortan Joe going up against his own warrior Furiosa and Max as they attempt to save his five wives. This movie showed what a blockbuster can be capable of, with its pacing, action, and thematic storytelling.
Best Documentary (Short Subject):
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond The Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres Of The Shoah
A Girl In the River: The Price Of Forgiveness
Last Day Of Freedom
Much like the short film picks, these are tough to judge. Given the material of the subjects, I'm going with Body Team 12. It deals with the Ebola outbreak in Liberia, looking at a specific team whose job it is to remove bodies to prevent the spread.
Pick: Body Team 12
Best Documentary (Feature):
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look Of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter On Fire: Ukraine's Fight For Freedom
The writing's on the wall with this one. "Amy" has been pretty much sweeping up the awards circuit. It gives a very real look into the life of the late Amy Whinehouse, going behind the curtain to give a real portrait of her.
Pick: Amy
Best Picture Nominee: Room
A woman tries to hold it together for her young son as they deal with captivity, and then the outside world. Its really a shame that probably not many have seen this, because its certainly incredibly moving. Brie Larson is tremendous, but I found myself throughout wondering how Jacob Tremblay, who plays her son, didn't get a nomination.
Best Directing:
The Big Short (Adam McKay)
Mad Max: Fury Road (George Miller)
The Revenant (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu)
Room (Lenny Abrahamson)
Spotlight (Tom McCarthy)
Much like Best Picture, directing could go any number of ways. Money seems to be on an Inarritu repeat, but you can't count out Miller, or McCarthy. I went with Miller for the Globe.....and I think I'm going to stick with him here. Its so rare that you have such a blockbuster be as good as Fury Road was. And its about time Miller gets some recognition for the franchise.
Pick: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Costume Design:
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Costume design tends to favor period pieces. Now, Mad Max very well may win, but I'm going with the legend Sandy Powell and Carol. The designs perfectly fit the times.
Pick: Carol
Best Cinematography:
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revanant
Sicario
Once more, this seems to be a race between Mad Max and The Revenant, but this is one I think that The Revenant wins. The styling and shots were just amazing, and greatly added to the film.
Pick: The Revenant
Best Picture Nominee: The Big Short
An inside look at the housing market and the resulting 2008 recession, a number of groups look to profit off of the American economy. The way Ryan Gosling breaks the fourth wall to explain certain terms really makes The Big Short accessible to all. It had the perfect blend of comedy and drama in explaining this bleak moment in recent history.
Best Animated Feature Film:
Anomalisa
Boy And The World
Inside Out
Shaun The Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
This is probably the biggest lock of this year's Oscars. Pixar/Disney really came through, as they always seem to with Inside Out. An in-depth and also mature look at our emotions.
Pick: Inside Out
Best Actress In A Supporting Role:
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
This race finally feels settled, as Vikander and Mara ended up being nominated for Supporting instead of acting. You can never count out Winslet, but I think I'm going with Alicia Vikander. She had such chemistry with Eddie Redmayne.
Pick: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Best Actor In A Supporting Role:
Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge Of Spies)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
This race is also up in the air. You could make cases for all 5. The buzz seems to be with Stallone, and I think it'll coalesce at the Oscars. He seems to be the sentimental pick, but you can't count out spoilers like Hardy or Rylance.
Pick: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Best Actress In A Leading Role:
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Entering awards season, this looked to be a race between Ronan and Larson, but the latter has pretty much been sweeping the awards season. Her performance in "Room" was just tremendous. She's believable and just drives that character home. Her layering of the character (if that makes sense) is spot on.
Pick: Brie Larson (Room)
Entering awards season, this looked to be a race between Ronan and Larson, but the latter has pretty much been sweeping the awards season. Her performance in "Room" was just tremendous. She's believable and just drives that character home. Her layering of the character (if that makes sense) is spot on.
Pick: Brie Larson (Room)
Best Picture Nominee: Spotlight
A look at the spotlight Boston Globe team that investigated the Catholic Priest scandal. This movie was able to show how important good investigative journalism is. Even though its not thought of as a thriller, it played out that way. It was truly gripping until the end.
Best Actor In A Leading Role:
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Is this finally the year that Leo gets his Oscar? I certainly think so. What he went through, and how committed he was to "Hugh Glass", he definitely earned it. Leo has had a number of close calls when its come to the Oscar's, but this should finally be his time. I mean, if he doesn't win for this, what's he going to have to do to get his award?
Pick: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Best Picture:
The Big Short
Bridge Of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
A race that's coming down to the wire. A number of these nominees have gotten some big awards, The Big Short (producer's guild), Spotlight (Critics Choice, SAGs, Spirit Awards), and The Revenant (Golden Globe, BAFTA's, DGAs). However, you also can't count out spoilers like Mad Max or even Room. Personally, I've been going back and forth between The Revenant and Spotlight. Now mind you, with this year's field, I'd be good with really any winner, its such a good field (probably one of the best in years). With that being said, I've been flipping, but have decided to pick Spotlight. Its pacing was just tremendous and it just laid everything out on the table. At the end, it left you stunned, just asking to yourself "How could this have happened? It could have happened to me..."
Pick: Spotlight
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