91st Academy Awards: Preview

At long last, its time for the Oscars. Its been a winding road, with a potential wide open Best Picture race (that has the potential to make a lot of people, myself included, pretty irritated at 1 prospective winner). But enough about that, lets get to some predictions.



Best Animated Short Film:
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

You can never count out Pixar when it comes to shorts, but this is a strong group of nominees. I think Late Afternoon is going to take this. Along with One Small Step, it was one of the most moving of this group, with the way it portrays a woman with dementia traveling through her memories.

Best Animated Feature:
Incredibles 2
Isle Of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This has been one of the most open and shut years for animated feature, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is easily taking this Oscar home.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

The question here is will Academy voters spread it out and perhaps give this to Cold War, not wanting to double up Roma with best picture. I'm going the safe, practical route with Roma.

Best Live Action Short Film:
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

Doesn't it always seem the case that when it comes to live action short, the various plots of these nominees tend to be depressing? That's why I'm going with one that stands out, Marguerite, dealing with an older woman confronting her own sexuality when learning that her nurse is a lesbian.

Best Sound Editing:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

Much like the Grammys' awards for song and record of the year, sound editing and mixing can seem redundant. Editing deals with the creation of sound effects, whereas mixing is about recording sound (simplest way to put it). Now, with that out of the way; a safe bet could be Bohemian Rhapsody for these sound awards (or A Star Is Born) being musical films, but i'm going with Black Panther.

Best Sound Mixing:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

A sounds sweep with Black Panther is my call.

Best Production Design:
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

When it comes to design awards, the Oscars tend to go for period pieces. With that, I'm going with The Favourite.

Best Documentary Short Feature:
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence

This year's documentary shorts are actually quite accessible to view (whether through netflix, pbs or youtube). The one that particularly stood out to me is A Night at the Garden. Its rather eye-opening footage of a Nazi rally in NYC that I never knew about. The imagery is truly shocking.

Best Documentary Feature:
Free Solo
Hale Country This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers And Sons
RBG

I could see either RBG or Minding the Gap taking this, but I'm going with Free Solo. It includes some of the most thrilling scenes in film over the past year with the climb of El Cap. Its truly breath-taking.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel & Ethan Coen)

BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)

If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)

A Star Is Born (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters)

I'm going with BlacKkKlansman. Spike Lee gets his much deserved Oscar.

Best Original Screenplay:

The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)

First Reformed (Paul Schrader)

Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly)

Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)

Vice (Adam McKay)

There are a different number of ways this could go. It'd be a bad sign (for me personally) if Green Book somehow takes this, but I'm going with a film that seems to be peaking at the right time, The Favourite. 

Best Makeup And Hair Styling:

Border

Mary Queen of Scots

Vice

Given the transformation that took place, I'm going with Vice. The amount of work they did with Christian Bale to allow him to resemble Dick Cheney is astounding.

Best Costume Design:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

Just like production design, this seems like a safe bet for The Favourite. The much nominated Sandy Powell rightfully takes home another Oscar.

Best Cinematography:

Cold War

The Favourite

Never Look Again

Roma

A Star Is Born

This should go to Roma. The photography and overall look really added to Roma's aesthetic.

Best Original Song:

"All the Stars", Black Panther 

"I'll Fight", RBG

"The Place Where Lost Things Go", Mary Poppins Returns

"Shallow", A Star Is Born

"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings", The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

The safest of bets, this is going to Shallow. And rightfully so.

Best Original Score:

Black Panther (Ludwig Goransson)

BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)

If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)

Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)

Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)

This could go to If Beale Street Could Talk, but I'm leaning towards Black Panther. That score really stood out to me. It could be the sign of a big night night for Black Panther.

Best Film Editing:

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Vice

It was a little surprising to see the omissions from editing. With these nominees, it seems that Vice is making a push as a potential editing favorite, so that's my pick. 

Best Visual Effects:

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

First Man

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story

This could to go Avengers, but I'm leaning towards First Man. It gave a realistic look at space travel for the moon landing.

Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

All signs are pointing to Mahershala Ali. Among the acting awards, this one seems like the most locked down. If there is an upset, look for Richard E. Grant.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina De Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

I'm going with Regina King. Early on, she was a heavy favorite, though there have been some openings. Rachel Weisz has been coming on late, but as I said, I'm going with King.

Best Actor:

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

This looks like a 2-man race with Bale and Malek. It could be close, but I'm going with Rami Malek. He's taken more of the main signal awards. Whether its deserved or not...that isn't up to me.

Best Actress:

Yalitza Apricio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

This is likely the closest among the acting awards. Its between Glenn Close and Olivia Colman. I had a tough time deciding between the two.....but ended up going with Olivia Colman. For me this goes back to the rise of The Favourite. You can't really go wrong either way.

Best Director:

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Adam McKay, Vice

All signs here are pointing to Alfonso Cuaron. He could have taken on any project following Gravity, but the work he did with Roma was astounding. This project was truly a labor of love for him, showing us glimpses of his background and upbringing. 

Best Picture:

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

If you thought last year's best picture race was wide open, you haven't seen anything yet. The big guild awards for the most part spread it out among these films. Like I mentioned in the intro, the one film that has a chance that I'm hoping doesn't come away with this is Green Book. On top of being historically inaccurate and being another "white savior" film, there were a number of controversies that have popped up over the last couple of months (look it up). 

I could see BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, or even Black Panther (after its SAG ensemble award) winning, but I'm going with Roma. For being in black & white, and seeing it on Netflix, it still was able to stand out for me. The look and attention to detail in every shot is like something I've never really seen before. It'd be a very worthy best picture winner.